Bangladesh Economy Daily Brief (5 pm Dhaka)
– Growth alarm from the World Bank: The lender warns Bangladesh’s GDP growth could slump to a multi‑decade low, with estimates pointing to the weakest pace since the pandemic and potentially a 36‑year low. It cautions that up to 30 lakh (3 million) more people could be pushed into poverty if the slowdown and inflation pressures persist.
– IMF tightening: The IMF has increased pressure on Dhaka by imposing a ceiling on further borrowing, sharpening the trade‑offs for budget financing and project pipelines. The move underscores the need to prioritise external debt management and reform momentum.
– Fresh World Bank financing: Bangladesh has secured USD 250 million in new World Bank funding, providing near‑term budgetary breathing space amid tighter external financing conditions.
– Remittance lifeline: Senior leadership credited non‑resident Bangladeshis for helping stabilise the economy after July’s unrest, highlighting remittances as a key buffer for FX liquidity and household demand.
– India trade holds up: Bangladesh‑India trade posted a modest rise despite ongoing restrictions, suggesting resilient cross‑border supply chains even as exporters face tighter compliance and documentation regimes.
– RMG margin squeeze: US buyers are pressing Bangladeshi apparel suppliers to absorb part of tariff costs, shifting more pricing pressure onto factories already contending with higher finance and utility costs.
– New labour market channel: Dhaka is exploring manpower exports to Uzbekistan, aiming to diversify destinations for Bangladeshi workers and broaden remittance sources beyond the Gulf and Southeast Asia.
– Digital work, fragile incomes: The gig economy is expanding, but worker protections remain thin—raising policy questions on wages, benefits and platform accountability as more youth turn to app‑based work.
What to watch: Details and disbursement timeline for the USD 250m WB financing; next steps on IMF conditionality and any borrowing limits’ impact on development projects; remittance trend and export orders into Q4, especially pricing terms from US and EU buyers.
