Bangladesh Economy Daily Brief (5 pm Dhaka) — 8 October 2025
Growth outlook and jobs
– The World Bank sees Bangladesh’s economy rebounding but projects growth of 4.8% for the current fiscal year, underscoring the need for timely structural reforms. Its latest assessments flag a rise in poverty to 21.2% and a shrinking labour force driven by falling female participation. The Bank expects poverty and inflation pressures to ease over the next two years if reforms advance.
Activity pulse
– Private-sector activity accelerated in September: the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 59.1, signalling faster expansion in output and orders compared to August. Businesses reported stronger momentum heading into Q2 FY26.
Prices and cost of living
– Bangladesh continues to lag regional peers in bringing inflation under control, keeping household budgets under pressure. Authorities are leaning on supply-side measures to ease food prices.
Trade and commodities
– The government approved the import of 220,000 tonnes of US wheat, a move aimed at stabilising domestic supply and prices while helping smooth recent trade frictions with Washington.
Labour and compliance
– Dhaka is moving to ratify three additional ILO conventions, a step that could strengthen labour rights compliance and support market access, particularly for export-oriented sectors.
Banking reform
– Debate over bank mergers has intensified, with questions around whether consolidation alone can address governance gaps, capital shortfalls and non-performing loans. A clearer roadmap on sequencing reforms remains a key investor ask.
Remittances and exports
– Policymakers are focusing on keeping remittance flows steady and maintaining export competitiveness amid global demand uncertainty—both crucial for the balance of payments.
Key numbers
– PMI (September): 59.1 (faster expansion)
– World Bank FY outlook: 4.8% GDP growth projection (current fiscal year)
– Poverty rate: 21.2%
– Wheat import: 220,000 tonnes from the US
What to watch
– September inflation print and food price trends
– Q1 FY26 export and remittance receipts
– Details and timelines for ILO convention ratification
– Concrete steps on banking-sector reform and any merger announcements
