Bangladesh Economy Daily Brief (5 pm Dhaka)
– Growth outlook trimmed, risks flagged: The Asian Development Bank cut Bangladesh’s forecast to 4.0% for FY25 and 5.0% for FY26, citing stubborn inflation, fragile banking sector health and external headwinds. The rebound in FY26 is seen as gradual rather than robust, with risks clustered around tariff uncertainty in major markets such as the US, lingering price pressures, and the need to rebuild confidence in the financial system.
– Recovery hinges on stabilisation: The improved FY26 print reflects expectations of easing import constraints, steadier power supply and modest gains in exports and investment, but the ADB underscored that reforms in bank governance, NPL resolution and monetary-fiscal coordination will be critical to sustain momentum.
– Trade exposure remains a swing factor: Apparel faces potential demand and pricing pressures if tariff or non-tariff barriers rise in key destinations. Diversification into higher-value garments and non-RMG exports, plus improved logistics, are highlighted as buffers against external shocks.
– Digital finance is growing—but depth lags: Mobile payments continue to surge in scale, yet Bangladesh trails regional peers on “active” usage and merchant acceptance. Closing this usage gap—through interoperability, agent liquidity, and merchant onboarding—could lower transaction costs and support SME productivity.
– External financing: Bangladesh has secured a new $250 million financing package from the World Bank, adding to the near-term external funding pipeline and easing pressure on budgetary and balance-of-payments support.
What to watch
– September export and remittance prints for signs of demand stabilisation.
– October CPI for confirmation that inflation is easing.
– Progress on banking clean-up and policy steps to deepen mobile money usage.
– Any movement on tariff policy in key markets that could affect apparel orders.
