Bangladesh Economy Daily Brief (5 pm Dhaka)
– Growth: GDP expanded 3.35% in Q4 FY25, with industry leading the rebound. For the current fiscal, the World Bank projects growth at 4.8%—the weakest pace in around 36 years—warning that about 3 million more people could slip into poverty without timely reforms. ADB similarly trims the outlook to around 5% and flags persistent inflation risks.
– Prices and policy: The government’s energy adviser blasted excessive LPG mark-ups and vowed mobile court drives to hold traders accountable—an enforcement push aimed at easing household energy costs and broader price pressures. An ongoing policy debate centers on how tight monetary settings should remain to tame inflation without stalling recovery.
– External sector and trade: Looser import controls are reviving supply chains and domestic activity but adding pressure on foreign reserves. Bangladesh is capitalizing on a US soybean surplus as China steps back, helping lower feed and edible oil input costs—supportive for food inflation and agro-based industries.
– Banking and liquidity: Interbank money transactions have rebounded sharply, signaling improved system liquidity even as policymakers keep a cautious stance on monetary conditions.
– International ties: Dhaka and the EU agreed to fast-track a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, a step that could deepen trade, investment and regulatory cooperation.
– Markets: Equity sentiment is improving as clarity on the polls timeline draws investors back to the bourse.
– Financing: Bangladesh has secured USD 250 million in World Bank funding, adding support for fiscal needs and reform efforts.
What to watch: Central bank guidance on interest rates and liquidity; reserve trends as imports climb; the impact of LPG price enforcement on inflation; progress on the EU cooperation pact.
