Bangladesh Economy Daily Brief (5 pm Dhaka)
Growth outlook dimmed: The Asian Development Bank cut Bangladesh’s FY26 GDP growth forecast to 5%, flagging persistent inflation and weak investor confidence. It warned that heightened US tariffs, election-related spending, and ongoing banking-sector strains could further impede the recovery.
Central bank moves on Islamic banks: Bangladesh Bank plans to appoint administrators to crisis-hit Islamic banks, a rare intervention aimed at stabilising governance, liquidity and capital buffers in a troubled corner of the financial system.
External financing pipeline: The ADB said it expects to provide over $7 billion in assistance to Bangladesh in 2026, underscoring the country’s reliance on multilateral support amid balance-of-payments and fiscal pressures.
Commodity squeeze persists: Wholesale palm oil prices in Chattogram’s Khatunganj have surged despite rising imports, pointing to supply-chain bottlenecks or market distortions. The spike threatens to keep food inflation elevated even as global edible oil prices have been comparatively softer in recent months.
Equities under pressure: Stocks fell for a second straight week, reflecting risk-off sentiment as growth downgrades, banking concerns and inflation worries weigh on domestic investors.
Poverty risks rising: In a separate assessment, the World Bank projected a slump in growth to a 36-year low, warning that as many as 30 lakh more people could slip into poverty if conditions deteriorate.
What to watch: Any Bangladesh Bank circular on administrators for Islamic banks; October inflation print and edible oil pass-through; September remittance and export numbers for signs of external balance relief; market reaction to ADB’s outlook and funding pipeline.
