Bangladesh Economy Daily Brief (5 pm Dhaka) — 2 October 2025
– Growth downgrades deepen: A fresh outlook now projects GDP growth to slow to 3.9% in FY2025 before a modest rebound to around 5% in FY2026. The recovery is seen at risk from higher external tariffs on key exports, elevated election-related spending pressures, and banking-sector weaknesses. Separate assessments also revised down Bangladesh’s growth path for the next three fiscals.
– Competitiveness squeeze: Exporters are estimated to have lost about Tk1,830 crore as competitors benefited from more favorable currency moves. The gap underscores persistent pressure to keep the exchange rate more flexible and aligned with market conditions to protect margins in garments and other export lines.
– Construction slump hits steel: A sustained downturn in construction has pushed the steel industry into a deep crisis, with reports of thinning orders and idle capacity. The slowdown in project execution and softer private-sector building activity are weighing on mills’ cash flow and employment.
– Social strain warnings: Analysts warn that slower GDP growth could carry serious social consequences, with jobs, real incomes, and poverty reduction at risk if the slowdown persists.
– Digital commerce trust deficit: Four years after high-profile e-commerce failures, many customers are still chasing refunds. The prolonged resolution timeline highlights ongoing gaps in consumer protection and enforcement, clouding confidence in online marketplaces.
What to watch
– October-November macro prints: inflation trajectory, remittances ahead of year-end, and export receipts as new tariffs bite.
– Currency policy and liquidity: any steps to narrow the gap between official and market rates to support exporters.
– Banking reforms: progress on NPL resolution and governance to shore up credit transmission.
– Public investment execution: whether project disbursements pick up to revive construction demand and relieve stress in steel and allied sectors.
